{"id":3406,"date":"2025-12-16T11:44:20","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T00:44:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3406"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:24:54","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:24:54","slug":"20251214en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/2025\/12\/16\/20251214en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Dovish Fed Rate Cut Triggers Three-Day Dollar Slide, Silver Surges 6% to New Record High, Rising BOJ Hike Expectations Reshape Global Carry Trade Dynamics"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.40, marking its third consecutive weekly decline. Spot silver soared 6.38% to USD 61.97\/oz, setting a new all-time high. U.S. tech stocks led losses, with the Nasdaq down 1.62%, while the Dow Jones rose 1.05% against the trend. Bitcoin hovered around the USD 43,000 level.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market narratives centered on \u201cpolicy divergence trades\u201d and \u201cAI bubble validation,\u201d driving intense cross-asset volatility.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weekly Performance and Fundamental Analysis Across Asset Classes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. FX Market: Dollar Falls to Three-Week Low, Broad Gains in Non-USD Currencies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Dollar Index:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Down 0.6% for the week to 98.40. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps in December and launched a short-term bond purchase program (USD 40 billion in the first month). However, Chair Powell\u2019s less-than-hawkish tone accelerated dollar selling.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Major Currency Moves:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EUR\/USD broke above 1.1700<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">GBP\/USD reached 1.3300<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AUD\/USD rose in tandem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD\/JPY formed an inverted V pattern: rising to 156.50 early in the week before retreating as BOJ tightening expectations intensified<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed policy easing: Powell acknowledged that U.S. nonfarm payroll data may be systematically overstated (by roughly 60,000 jobs per month), implying actual employment growth could already be negative<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BOJ pivot approaching: Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that rate hikes will occur \u201cmore than once\u201d, with markets pricing in a 90% probability of a December hike<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Precious Metals: Expanding Silver Supply Deficit Attracts Record Speculative Inflows<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot silver: +6.38% to USD 61.97\/oz, third consecutive weekly gain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot gold: +2.48% to USD 4,300.38\/oz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fundamental Support:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Structural supply shortage: The Silver Institute estimates a 2025 global silver supply deficit of 117 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rising financial demand: Fed rate cuts compressed real yields, pushing retail speculative participation to 40% (BIS data)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutional views: RBC forecasts average gold prices of USD 4,600 in 2026, while Goldman Sachs sees silver potentially breaking above USD 100<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Equities and Bonds: Tech Rout Deepens, U.S. Yield Curve Steepens<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Equity Performance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dow Jones: +1.05%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500: \u20130.63%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq: \u20131.62%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector Divergence:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Banks and rate-sensitive stocks led gains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technology stocks sold off sharply (Oracle \u201310%+, Broadcom \u201311%)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bond Market:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">10-year Treasury yield: +5 bps for the week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">30-year yield: hit its highest level since September<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Core Tension:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Disappointing AI order monetization (Oracle\u2019s Q2 revenue miss) intensified valuation compression in high-growth sectors.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Energy and Industrial Metals: Geopolitics vs. Supply-Demand Imbalance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crude Oil:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI: flat on the week at USD 59\/barrel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brent: followed a similar pattern<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Forces:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply risks: The U.S. seized Venezuelan oil tankers carrying crude worth USD 80 million, with Iranian Revolutionary Guard involvement raising escalation risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demand pressure: India increased Russian oil purchases, Iraqi output recovered, and EIA inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels, exceeding expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutional outlook: Goldman Sachs and Citi expect continued downside pressure in 2026 due to oversupply<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Range-Bound Amid Regulatory Uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin: weekly volatility fell to 8%, trading sideways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum: declined in tandem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy Environment:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The U.S. SEC stepped up scrutiny of stablecoins<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The PBOC reiterated its stance against illegal crypto speculation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">On-chain Data:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Whale addresses accumulated 15,000 BTC during the week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Derivatives open interest declined 12% month-on-month<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Events and Policy Developments \u2013 In-Depth Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Fed Policy Split Highlights Institutional Constraints<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Voting breakdown: 9 in favor vs. 3 opposed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Goolsbee and Schmid opposed the cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Milan advocated a 50 bps cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Short-term bond purchases: USD 40 billion in the first month; Barclays projects USD 525 billion total by 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Political pressure: Trump criticized the cut as \u201ctoo small,\u201d hinting that future Fed leadership should support more aggressive easing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Global Central Banks Shift Toward Tightening<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bank of Japan: Ueda emphasized that hikes are \u201cnot the end,\u201d with neutral rates possibly exceeding 0.75%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ECB: Executive Board member Schnabel stated that \u201cthe next move could be a rate hike,\u201d with markets pricing a 30% probability in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spillover risks: A BOJ hike could trigger carry trade unwinds, intensifying capital outflows from emerging markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Rising Geopolitical Risks Disrupt Supply Chains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Russia\u2013Ukraine stalemate: Zelensky rejected unilateral troop withdrawals, while U.S.\u2013EU disagreements over territorial concessions widened<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Venezuela tensions: The first-ever U.S. seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers raises the risk of retaliation and a higher oil risk premium<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Economic and Market Events to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Central Bank Decisions &amp; Policy Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BOJ rate decision (Dec 19): A 25 bps hike to 0.75% could push USD\/JPY below 155<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ECB &amp; BOE decisions (Dec 18): Hawkish signals could drive EUR\/USD toward 1.1800<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed speakers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Williams (Dec 15)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Milan (Dec 16)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Focus on 2026 policy path guidance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Economic Data Releases<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Nov Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec 16): Consensus +35k; a print below 100k would reinforce easing expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Nov CPI (Dec 18): Core CPI below 3.0% YoY could cap any dollar rebound<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eurozone PMI Flash (Dec 15): A return above the expansion threshold may lift cyclical stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Corporate Earnings &amp; Tech Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Micron earnings (Dec 16): AI memory demand in focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ByteDance Volcano Engine Conference (Dec 18): AI computing cost reductions may impact tech valuations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SpaceX IPO progress: Valuation reportedly nearing USD 800 billion, with Starlink revenue expectations fueling aerospace sector interest<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.40, marking its third consecutive weekly decline. Spot silver soared 6.38% to USD 61.97\/oz, setting a new all-time high. U.S. tech stocks led losses, with the Nasdaq down 1.62%, while the Dow Jones rose 1.05% against the trend. Bitcoin hovered around the USD 43,000 level. Market narratives [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3406"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3406\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3408,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3406\/revisions\/3408"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3407"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}