Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Capital Repricing Risk, Gold and Silver Enter a Strong Rally

On January 12, 2026, global markets saw a sharp rise in volatility as risk sentiment shifted rapidly. Growing uncertainty over the future policy environment drove capital toward safe-haven assets. The U.S. dollar index and equity futures weakened in tandem, while precious metals led gains. Spot gold surged above USD 4,600 per ounce to a new historical range high, and silver also rallied strongly on heightened safe-haven demand.

Despite relatively resilient U.S. labor data, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.4% and rate expectations largely unchanged, market focus has moved from individual data points to uncertainty premiums and risk repricing. Ongoing geopolitical tensions further supported commodities, with crude oil briefly climbing above USD 59 per barrel. In the near term, markets are likely to remain driven by safe-haven flows and asset reallocation, keeping volatility elevated.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. US-Aktienmarkt

Index performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average: up about 0.17%, at approximately 49,590 points, marking a new historical closing high.
S&P 500 Index: up about 0.16%, closing at approximately 6,977 points, also a new historical closing high.
Nasdaq Composite Index: up about 0.26%, closing at approximately 25,890 points, with technology stocks broadly stronger.

Aktien-Highlight: Alphabet (GOOGL): A new challenger to the AI throne. Google’s performance overnight (January 12) was exceptionally strong, with its share price reaching a new all-time high and touching USD 334.04 intraday.

2. Devisenmarkt

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): currently around 98.86. Markets are concerned that the Federal Reserve may be forced into “non-economic rate cuts” under government pressure, weakening the dollar’s appeal.
EUR/USD: at 1.1668. Dollar weakness has given the euro some breathing room, with the rebound from around 1.1630 largely driven by passive dollar selling.
USD/JPY: at 158.11. Despite the overall decline in the dollar index, the yen remains weak. The U.S.–Japan interest rate differential is still near historical highs, and capital continues to flow out toward U.S. dollar assets or gold.

3. Edelmetalle und Rohstoffe

Precious metals

Spot gold (XAUUSD): gold prices surged more than 2% in a single day, firmly holding above the USD 4,600 level. Beyond geopolitical factors, market concerns over the Federal Reserve’s ability to operate independently (Federal Reserve Independence) have become a new long-term driver of gold’s upward trend.
Spot silver (XAGUSD): at USD 85.21 per ounce. Silver has shown remarkable elasticity and is undergoing a sharp catch-up rally driven by safe-haven demand.

Rohstoffe

WTI crude oil: at USD 59.50 per barrel. Oil prices have recently been consolidating within the USD 55–60 range.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTC): latest around USD 91,340. Ahead of the CPI release, market wait-and-see sentiment is extremely strong, with a slight 24-hour decline of about 0.65%.
Ethereum (ETH): around USD 3,110, showing relatively steady performance. If broader market sentiment improves, ETH has stronger upside elasticity.

5. Key Events to Watch Today