Amillex Daily Market Commentary:“Hawkish rate cut” from the Fed and ongoing tech earnings continue to dominate market swings — this week’s key focus: can gold hold the $4,000 level as the main battleground between bulls and bears
November 3, 2025 — As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points last week but delivered a hawkish message that dampened expectations for another cut in December. The Nasdaq rose 2.24% for the week but showed wider daily fluctuations. Nvidia’s market capitalization surpassed $5 trillion, marking a historic milestone. Spot gold fell 2.65% but managed to hold above $4,000, while the U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.7, its highest level in two months. The market’s central theme remains the intense tug-of-war between “policy repricing” and “escalating geopolitical risks.”
U.S. Stock Market: Tech sector sees sharp divergence; Nvidia hits historic milestone
Milestone: Nvidia’s market cap surpassed $5 trillion, becoming the first publicly listed company to reach this level; shares gained over 8% for the week.
Polarized performance:
Leaders: Amazon +10.6% (cloud business growth hits three-year high); Google +5% (Q3 revenue tops $100 billion for the first time).
Laggards: Meta -11% (Q3 profit plunged 83%); Microsoft -2% (Azure cloud growth missed expectations).
Haupttreiber:
AI demand validation: Nvidia’s Blackwell chips projected to generate $500 billion in revenue over the next five quarters; Qualcomm launched AI200 chip to challenge market dominance.
Policy backdrop: Fed’s rate cut to 3.75%–4.00% eased financing pressure but the hawkish tone limited valuation expansion.
Precious Metals: Gold stabilizes above $4,000 after wild swings; central bank buying supports long-term outlook
Spot gold: Weekly range over 5%, briefly dipped to $3,870 before rebounding to close at $4,003.
Spot silver: +0.19% to $48.68, marking its sixth consecutive monthly gain.
Fundamentals:
Hawkish rate cut impact: Powell stated that “a December rate cut is not a given,” triggering a 3% single-day plunge in gold.
Geopolitical support: U.S. plans for potential military action against Venezuela and fragile Gaza ceasefire underscore gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Diverging forecasts: Citi remains short-term bearish (target $3,800), while HSBC sees gold rising to $4,400 in H1 2026.
Forex Market: Dollar hits two-month high as yen sinks to yearly low
Dollar: DXY +0.77% to 99.7, supported by hawkish Fed rhetoric.
Yen: Fell to ¥153.50 per USD, its weakest since February, as the BOJ kept policy unchanged, widening the rate differential.
Core logic: Divergent policy paths between the Fed (hawkish) and BOJ (dovish) have fueled renewed carry trade activity.
Commodities: Oil faces supply-demand tug-of-war as Venezuela risk premium rises
WTI crude: Down 1.2% for the week to $60.8, but rebounded Friday on reports the U.S. might conduct military strikes on Venezuela.
Drivers:
Supply pressure: Expectations of potential OPEC+ production hikes weighed on prices; EIA inventory drawdowns failed to offset weakness.
Geopolitical premium: Any U.S. military action against Venezuela could push oil prices up toward $65 in the short term.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin falls nearly 4% as regulatory uncertainty grows
Major coins: Bitcoin -3.8% to $105,000; Ethereum followed lower.
Policy headwinds: The People’s Bank of China reiterated its crackdown on crypto speculation, while the U.S. SEC tightened scrutiny over stablecoins.
Wichtige Ereignisse, die Sie diese Woche im Auge behalten sollten
Fed speakers: Remarks from NY Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Musalem — potential clues on December rate path.
Central banks:
Bank of England policy decision — expected to hold rates steady; divided votes may drive GBP volatility.
Reserve Bank of Australia — likely to keep rates unchanged amid persistent inflation.
U.S. data: ADP employment and ISM services PMI to serve as key indicators amid ongoing government shutdown (nonfarm payrolls possibly delayed again).
U.S. Supreme Court: Tariff authority case could limit presidential powers and ease trade tension concerns.
Geopolitical: Developments in Venezuela — escalation could boost oil’s risk premium.
Corporate earnings:
AMD: AI chip orders and OpenAI collaboration potential in focus.
Qualcomm: If new AI chip orders exceed expectations, it could challenge Nvidia’s dominance.
